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BÜYÜME VE İHRACAT ARASINDAKİ NEDENSELLİK İLİŞKİSİ: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ

Yıl 2005, Cilt: 60 Sayı: 4, 75 - 88, 09.02.2015

Öz

Bu çalışma Türkiye’de 1990 yılının ilk çeyreğinden 2004 yılının ilk çeyreği arasındaki dönemde ihracat ve büyüme arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisini araştırmaktadır. Nedensellik ilişkisinin tahmin edilmesinde vektör hata düzeltme modeli ve koentegrasyon analizinden yararlanılmıştır. Birim kök testleri her serinin seviye değerlerinde durağan olmadığını, serilerin birinci farklarında ise durağanlığın sağlandığını göstermektedir. Koentegrasyon testi sonuçları ihracat, ithalat ve büyüme arasında uzun dönem denge ilişkisinin mevcut olduğunu ve tek bir koentegrasyon vektörü olduğunu göstermektedir. Seriler koentegre olduklarından nedensellik testinin yapılması için vektör hata düzeltme modeli kullanılmıştır. Ampirik sonuçlar ihracat ve büyüme arasında tek yönlü bir ilişkinin bulunduğunu ve bu tek yönlü ilişkinin ihracattan büyümeye doğru olduğunu göstermektedir. Ayrıca koentegrasyon denklemi uzun dönemde ihracatın büyümeyi artırdığını göstermektedir. Bu sonuç ihracatın artırılmasına yönelik politikaların Türkiye’de büyümeyi artırdığını göstermektedir.

Kaynakça

  • ALICI, A.A. / UCAL, M.Ş. (2003), Foreign Direct Investment, Exports and Output Growth of Turkey: Causality Analysis (Madrid: Paper to be Presented European Trade Study Group 5. Annual Conference-11-13 September 2003).
  • AL-YOUSIF, Y.K. (1999), “On the Role of Exports in The Economic Erowth of Malaysia: A Multivariate Analysis,” International Economic Journal, 13: 65-75.
  • AMIRKHALKHALI, S./DAR, A.A. (1995), “A Varying-Coefficients Model of Export Expansion, Factor Accumulation and Economic Growth: Evidence From Cross-Country, Time Series Data,” Economic Modelling, 12: 435-41.
  • ARNADE, C./VASAVADA U. (1995), “Causality Between Productivity and Exports in Agriculture: Evidence from Asia and Latin America,” Journal of Agricultural Economics, 46: 174- 186.
  • BAHMANI-OSKOOEE, M./ DOMAC, I. (1995) “Export Growth and Economic Growth in Turkey: Evidence from Cointegration Analysis,” Middle East Technical University Studies in Development, 22: 67-77.
  • BAHMANI-OSKOOEE, M./ALSE, J. (1993), “Export Growth and Economic Growth: An Application of Cointegration and Error-Correction Modeling,” The Journal of Developing Areas, 27: 535-542.
  • BALASSA, B. (1985), “Exports, Policy Choies, and Economic Growth in Developing Countries After the 1973 Oil Shock,” Journal of Development Economics,18: 23-35.
  • BALASSA, B. (1978), “Exports and Economic Growth: Further Evidence,” Journal of Development Economics, 5: 181-189
  • BEN-DAVID, D./ LOEWY, M.B. (1998), “Free-Trade, Growth, and Convergence,” Journal of Economic Growth, 3: 143-70.
  • CHENERY, H.B./STROUT, A. (1966), “Foreign Assistance and Economic Development,” American Economic Review, 679-732.
  • DICKEY, D.A./FULLER, W.A. (1981), “Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root,” Econometrica, 49/4 (July): 1057-1072.
  • DODARO, S. (1993), “Exports and Growth: A Reconsideration of Causality,” Journal of Developing Areas, 27: 227-244.
  • DUTT, S.D. / GHOSH, D. (1994), “An Empirical Investigation of the Export Growth-Economic Growth Relationship,” Applied Economics Letters, 1: 44-48.
  • ENGLE, R.F. / GRANGER, C.W.J. (1987), “Cointegration and Error-Correction: Representation, Estimation and Testing,” Econometrica, 55: 251-276
  • ESFAHANI, H.S. (1991), “Exports, Imports, and Economic Growth in Semi-Industrialized Countries,” Journal of Development Economics, 35: 93-116.
  • FEDER, G. (1982), “On Exports and Economic Growth,” Journal of Development Economics, 12: 59-73
  • HELPMAN, E./KRUGMAN, P.R. (1985), Market Structure and Foreign Trade (Cambridge (Mass.): MIT Press).
  • HENRIQUES, I./SADORSKY, P. (1996), “Export-Led Growth or Growth-Driven Exports? The Canadian Case,” Canadian Journal of Economics, 96: 540-55.
  • FOSU, A.K. (1996), “Primary Exports and Economic Growth in Developing Countries,” World Economy, 19:465-475.
  • JOHANSEN, S. (1988), “Statistical Analysis of Cointegration Vectors,” Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12 (2-3): 231-254
  • JOHANSEN, S./JUSELIUS, K. (1990), “Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration-with Applications to the Demand for Money,” Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52: 169-210.
  • JONES, J./JOULFAIAN, D. (1991) “Federal Government Expenditures and Revenues in the Early Years of the American Republic: Evidence from 1792 and 1860,” Journal of Macroeconomics, 13: 133-155.
  • KAVOUSSI, R.M. (1984), “Export Expansion and Economic Growth: Further Empirical Evidence,” Journal of Development Economics, 14: 241-250.
  • KÖSE, N./YİĞİDİM, A. (1998), “Dışsallık ve İhracata Dayalı Büyüme Hipotezi: Türkiye Örneği, 1980- 1997,” İstatistik Konferansı, 26-27 Ekim 1998 (Ankara: Gazi Üniversitesi, İstatistik Bölümü): 147-155
  • LANCASTER, K. (1980), “Intra-Industry Trade Under Perfect Monopolistic Competition,” Journal of International Economics, 10: 151-175.
  • LUCAS, R.E. (1988), “On the Mechanics of Economic Development,” Journal of Monetary Economics, No:22: 3-42.
  • MICHAELY, M. (1977), “Exports and Growth: An Empirical Investigation,” Journal of Development Economics, 4: 49-53.
  • ÖZMEN, E./FURTUN, G. (1998), “Export-Led Growth Hypothesis and the Turkish Data: An Empirical Investigation,” METU Studies in Development, 25/3: 491-503.
  • POMPONIO, X.Z. (1996), “A Causality Analysis of Growth and Export Performance,” Atlantic Economic Journal, 24: 168-176.
  • RAM, R. (1987), “Exports and Economic Growth in Developing Countries: Evidence from TimeSeries and Cross-Section Data,” Economic Development and Cultural Change, 36: 51- 72.
  • RIEZMAN, R.G./ SUMMERS, P.M./ WHITEMAN, C.H. (1996), “The Engine of Growth or its Handmaiden? A Time Series Assessment of Export-Led Growth,” Empirical Economics, 21: 77-110.
  • SHAN, J./SUN, F. (1998), “Export-Led Growth Hypothesis for Australia: An Empirical Reinvestigation,” Applied Economics Letters, 5: 423-428.
  • SHARMA, S.C./DHAKAL, D. (1994) “Causal Analysis Between Exports and Economic Growth in Developing Countries,” Applied Economics, 26: 1145-57.
  • THORNTON, J. (1996), “Cointegration, Causality and Export-Led Growth in Mexico, 1895-1992,” Economic Letters, 50: 413-416.
  • THORNTON, J. (1997), “Export and Economic Growth:Evidence from 19th Century Europe,” Economic Letters, 55: 235-240.
  • TYLER, W.G. (1981), “Growth and Export Expansion in Developing Countries: Some Empirical Evidence,” Journal of Development Economics, 9: 121-130.
  • VOIVODAS, C. (1973), “Exports, Foreign Capital Inflow and Economic Growth,” Journal of International Economics, 3: 337-349.
  • YİĞİDİM, A./KÖSE, N. (1997), “İhracat ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişki, İthalatın Rolü: Türkiye örneği (1980-1996),” Ekonomik Yaklaşım, 8: 71-85.
Yıl 2005, Cilt: 60 Sayı: 4, 75 - 88, 09.02.2015

Öz

Kaynakça

  • ALICI, A.A. / UCAL, M.Ş. (2003), Foreign Direct Investment, Exports and Output Growth of Turkey: Causality Analysis (Madrid: Paper to be Presented European Trade Study Group 5. Annual Conference-11-13 September 2003).
  • AL-YOUSIF, Y.K. (1999), “On the Role of Exports in The Economic Erowth of Malaysia: A Multivariate Analysis,” International Economic Journal, 13: 65-75.
  • AMIRKHALKHALI, S./DAR, A.A. (1995), “A Varying-Coefficients Model of Export Expansion, Factor Accumulation and Economic Growth: Evidence From Cross-Country, Time Series Data,” Economic Modelling, 12: 435-41.
  • ARNADE, C./VASAVADA U. (1995), “Causality Between Productivity and Exports in Agriculture: Evidence from Asia and Latin America,” Journal of Agricultural Economics, 46: 174- 186.
  • BAHMANI-OSKOOEE, M./ DOMAC, I. (1995) “Export Growth and Economic Growth in Turkey: Evidence from Cointegration Analysis,” Middle East Technical University Studies in Development, 22: 67-77.
  • BAHMANI-OSKOOEE, M./ALSE, J. (1993), “Export Growth and Economic Growth: An Application of Cointegration and Error-Correction Modeling,” The Journal of Developing Areas, 27: 535-542.
  • BALASSA, B. (1985), “Exports, Policy Choies, and Economic Growth in Developing Countries After the 1973 Oil Shock,” Journal of Development Economics,18: 23-35.
  • BALASSA, B. (1978), “Exports and Economic Growth: Further Evidence,” Journal of Development Economics, 5: 181-189
  • BEN-DAVID, D./ LOEWY, M.B. (1998), “Free-Trade, Growth, and Convergence,” Journal of Economic Growth, 3: 143-70.
  • CHENERY, H.B./STROUT, A. (1966), “Foreign Assistance and Economic Development,” American Economic Review, 679-732.
  • DICKEY, D.A./FULLER, W.A. (1981), “Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root,” Econometrica, 49/4 (July): 1057-1072.
  • DODARO, S. (1993), “Exports and Growth: A Reconsideration of Causality,” Journal of Developing Areas, 27: 227-244.
  • DUTT, S.D. / GHOSH, D. (1994), “An Empirical Investigation of the Export Growth-Economic Growth Relationship,” Applied Economics Letters, 1: 44-48.
  • ENGLE, R.F. / GRANGER, C.W.J. (1987), “Cointegration and Error-Correction: Representation, Estimation and Testing,” Econometrica, 55: 251-276
  • ESFAHANI, H.S. (1991), “Exports, Imports, and Economic Growth in Semi-Industrialized Countries,” Journal of Development Economics, 35: 93-116.
  • FEDER, G. (1982), “On Exports and Economic Growth,” Journal of Development Economics, 12: 59-73
  • HELPMAN, E./KRUGMAN, P.R. (1985), Market Structure and Foreign Trade (Cambridge (Mass.): MIT Press).
  • HENRIQUES, I./SADORSKY, P. (1996), “Export-Led Growth or Growth-Driven Exports? The Canadian Case,” Canadian Journal of Economics, 96: 540-55.
  • FOSU, A.K. (1996), “Primary Exports and Economic Growth in Developing Countries,” World Economy, 19:465-475.
  • JOHANSEN, S. (1988), “Statistical Analysis of Cointegration Vectors,” Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12 (2-3): 231-254
  • JOHANSEN, S./JUSELIUS, K. (1990), “Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration-with Applications to the Demand for Money,” Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52: 169-210.
  • JONES, J./JOULFAIAN, D. (1991) “Federal Government Expenditures and Revenues in the Early Years of the American Republic: Evidence from 1792 and 1860,” Journal of Macroeconomics, 13: 133-155.
  • KAVOUSSI, R.M. (1984), “Export Expansion and Economic Growth: Further Empirical Evidence,” Journal of Development Economics, 14: 241-250.
  • KÖSE, N./YİĞİDİM, A. (1998), “Dışsallık ve İhracata Dayalı Büyüme Hipotezi: Türkiye Örneği, 1980- 1997,” İstatistik Konferansı, 26-27 Ekim 1998 (Ankara: Gazi Üniversitesi, İstatistik Bölümü): 147-155
  • LANCASTER, K. (1980), “Intra-Industry Trade Under Perfect Monopolistic Competition,” Journal of International Economics, 10: 151-175.
  • LUCAS, R.E. (1988), “On the Mechanics of Economic Development,” Journal of Monetary Economics, No:22: 3-42.
  • MICHAELY, M. (1977), “Exports and Growth: An Empirical Investigation,” Journal of Development Economics, 4: 49-53.
  • ÖZMEN, E./FURTUN, G. (1998), “Export-Led Growth Hypothesis and the Turkish Data: An Empirical Investigation,” METU Studies in Development, 25/3: 491-503.
  • POMPONIO, X.Z. (1996), “A Causality Analysis of Growth and Export Performance,” Atlantic Economic Journal, 24: 168-176.
  • RAM, R. (1987), “Exports and Economic Growth in Developing Countries: Evidence from TimeSeries and Cross-Section Data,” Economic Development and Cultural Change, 36: 51- 72.
  • RIEZMAN, R.G./ SUMMERS, P.M./ WHITEMAN, C.H. (1996), “The Engine of Growth or its Handmaiden? A Time Series Assessment of Export-Led Growth,” Empirical Economics, 21: 77-110.
  • SHAN, J./SUN, F. (1998), “Export-Led Growth Hypothesis for Australia: An Empirical Reinvestigation,” Applied Economics Letters, 5: 423-428.
  • SHARMA, S.C./DHAKAL, D. (1994) “Causal Analysis Between Exports and Economic Growth in Developing Countries,” Applied Economics, 26: 1145-57.
  • THORNTON, J. (1996), “Cointegration, Causality and Export-Led Growth in Mexico, 1895-1992,” Economic Letters, 50: 413-416.
  • THORNTON, J. (1997), “Export and Economic Growth:Evidence from 19th Century Europe,” Economic Letters, 55: 235-240.
  • TYLER, W.G. (1981), “Growth and Export Expansion in Developing Countries: Some Empirical Evidence,” Journal of Development Economics, 9: 121-130.
  • VOIVODAS, C. (1973), “Exports, Foreign Capital Inflow and Economic Growth,” Journal of International Economics, 3: 337-349.
  • YİĞİDİM, A./KÖSE, N. (1997), “İhracat ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişki, İthalatın Rolü: Türkiye örneği (1980-1996),” Ekonomik Yaklaşım, 8: 71-85.
Toplam 38 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Bölüm Araştırma Makaleleri
Yazarlar

Erdal Demirhan

Yayımlanma Tarihi 9 Şubat 2015
Gönderilme Tarihi 9 Şubat 2015
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2005 Cilt: 60 Sayı: 4

Kaynak Göster

APA Demirhan, E. (2015). BÜYÜME VE İHRACAT ARASINDAKİ NEDENSELLİK İLİŞKİSİ: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ. Ankara Üniversitesi SBF Dergisi, 60(4), 75-88.
AMA Demirhan E. BÜYÜME VE İHRACAT ARASINDAKİ NEDENSELLİK İLİŞKİSİ: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ. SBF Dergisi. Şubat 2015;60(4):75-88.
Chicago Demirhan, Erdal. “BÜYÜME VE İHRACAT ARASINDAKİ NEDENSELLİK İLİŞKİSİ: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ”. Ankara Üniversitesi SBF Dergisi 60, sy. 4 (Şubat 2015): 75-88.
EndNote Demirhan E (01 Şubat 2015) BÜYÜME VE İHRACAT ARASINDAKİ NEDENSELLİK İLİŞKİSİ: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ. Ankara Üniversitesi SBF Dergisi 60 4 75–88.
IEEE E. Demirhan, “BÜYÜME VE İHRACAT ARASINDAKİ NEDENSELLİK İLİŞKİSİ: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ”, SBF Dergisi, c. 60, sy. 4, ss. 75–88, 2015.
ISNAD Demirhan, Erdal. “BÜYÜME VE İHRACAT ARASINDAKİ NEDENSELLİK İLİŞKİSİ: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ”. Ankara Üniversitesi SBF Dergisi 60/4 (Şubat 2015), 75-88.
JAMA Demirhan E. BÜYÜME VE İHRACAT ARASINDAKİ NEDENSELLİK İLİŞKİSİ: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ. SBF Dergisi. 2015;60:75–88.
MLA Demirhan, Erdal. “BÜYÜME VE İHRACAT ARASINDAKİ NEDENSELLİK İLİŞKİSİ: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ”. Ankara Üniversitesi SBF Dergisi, c. 60, sy. 4, 2015, ss. 75-88.
Vancouver Demirhan E. BÜYÜME VE İHRACAT ARASINDAKİ NEDENSELLİK İLİŞKİSİ: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ. SBF Dergisi. 2015;60(4):75-88.